Donald Trump loves an 11th-hour play. Dropping a full endorsement on Truth Social at 12:56 a.m. on a Sunday—which also happened to be his 80th birthday—is classic Trump. By giving his complete backing to Congressman Mike Collins in Georgia's Republican U.S. Senate runoff, the president didn't just throw a bone to a loyal ally. He officially set up a massive proxy war with Georgia's establishment Republicans, right before voters head to the polls.
This isn't just about who gets to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in November. It's a high-stakes stress test of Trump's endorsement power in a state that has historically given his picks a rough time.
The Proxy War We All Saw Coming
If you look past the standard campaign rhetoric, this runoff is a battle between two competing visions of the Georgia GOP. On one side, you have Mike Collins, a second-term congressman and self-described MAGA warrior who owns a trucking company. He has been firmly in Trump’s corner since 2022, aggressively echoing claims about the 2020 election and championing hardline immigration policies like the Laken Riley Act.
On the other side stands Derek Dooley. He’s a former University of Tennessee football coach, a political newcomer, and a childhood friend of outgoing Governor Brian Kemp. Kemp recruited Dooley specifically because establishment Republicans wanted a fresh face who could appeal to suburban moderates—the exact voters Republicans need to win back if they want to unseat Ossoff.
Trump didn't pull any punches when he weighed in on Dooley. He basically called him a carpetbagger, noting that Dooley lived outside Georgia for much of his life and didn't even vote in the 2016 or 2020 elections. Trump also didn't appreciate Dooley publicly acknowledging that Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020.
But Dooley isn't backing down. Backed by Kemp’s formidable state-level political machine, Dooley is betting that Georgia voters are tired of typical Washington politicians and want an outsider who can actually win a general election.
Why Georgia is Different for Trump Endorsements
In most states, a late-night Trump endorsement is an immediate golden ticket. Look at Texas, where Trump backed Ken Paxton over Senator John Cornyn’s preferred pick in a recent primary runoff, leading Paxton to a swift victory. Look at Indiana, where several state senators fell to Trump-backed challengers earlier this year.
Georgia, though, is weird. The state party has a stubborn streak.
Back in 2022, Georgia Republicans overwhelmingly rejected Trump’s attempts to purge his local enemies. They easily re-elected Governor Brian Kemp over Trump-backed former Senator David Perdue. They also chose Brad Raffensperger over Trump’s preferred candidate for Secretary of State. The MAGA base is loud and loyal, but Kemp’s operation has proved that a math-driven, localized conservative message can beat pure loyalty to Mar-a-Lago.
Collins already had the upper hand before the endorsement dropped, pulling roughly 40.5% of the vote in the initial primary compared to Dooley’s 30.2%. But because neither cleared the 50% threshold, everything reset. Early voting for the runoff wrapped up before Trump posted his endorsement, meaning this midnight digital blessing is targeting the traditional, election-day voters.
The Massive Ossoff Problem Waiting in November
Whoever survives this nasty primary slugfest has to face a massive financial juggernaut. Jon Ossoff is sitting on a mountain of cash. He is the only sitting Democratic senator running for re-election this year in a state that Trump carried in 2024. National Republicans have a target painted squarely on his back, but Ossoff isn't sweating yet.
By the end of May, neither Collins nor Dooley had managed to raise even $5 million, and both had less than $2 million left on hand. Now compare that to Ossoff. By late April, the incumbent senator had already raised a staggering $60.4 million, with more than $32.5 million sitting comfortably in his campaign account.
The general election strategy for both Republicans looks completely different:
- The Collins Strategy: Rely on pure base mobilization. Turn out rural, hardcore MAGA voters in massive numbers to overwhelm Ossoff, assuming Trump’s presence on the top of the ballot pulls Collins over the finish line.
- The Dooley Strategy: Point to the 2024 victories of Republican outsiders like Tim Sheehy in Montana and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. Argue that a political newcomer can hold the MAGA base while winning back the Atlanta suburbs that drifted away from the GOP.
If Collins wins the runoff, Trump gets to claim total dominance over the state party, erasing some of the sting from his 2022 losses. If Dooley pulls off an upset, Brian Kemp proves yet again that his brand of Georgia conservatism can out-muscle national MAGA influence.
The real test isn't just about who wins the right to billboard their face next to Trump's. It's whether the winner can actually clear a multi-million-dollar financial deficit and convince a highly polarized electorate to flip a crucial Senate seat. Keep a close eye on the final vote tallies in suburban counties like Cobb and Gwinnett; those numbers will tell you exactly how much weight Trump's name still carries in the Peach State.
