Why Susan Collins Cannot Escape the Kavanaugh Vote in 2026

Why Susan Collins Cannot Escape the Kavanaugh Vote in 2026

Susan Collins wants you to know she is disappointed. She is unhappy that the Supreme Court stripped away federal abortion rights by overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. But if you ask her whether she regrets casting the decisive vote to put Justice Brett Kavanaugh on that very court, her answer is a flat, uncompromising no.

"I do not regret that vote," Collins told reporters recently in Portland.

It is a bold stance for a Republican senator running a tight reelection campaign in a deeply independent state like Maine. For years, Collins built her brand on a specific kind of moderate New England politics. She was the pro-choice Republican who could bridge divides. That brand shattered the moment she stood on the Senate floor in 2018 and gave a 44-minute speech defending Kavanaugh. She insisted he viewed Roe as settled law. She chose to trust his private assurances over the warnings of millions of women. Now, she is facing her first reelection test since that decision bore fruit, and the political fallout is getting messy.

The Price of Settled Law

The reality on the ground has changed since Collins last shared a ballot with Donald Trump in 2020. Back then, the threat to reproductive rights was still a theoretical talking point for many voters. That changed completely when the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision came down. Kavanaugh did exactly what critics knew he would do. He voted to dismantle fifty years of legal precedent.

Collins tries to split the difference. She claims she can separate her support for Kavanaugh from her anger at his judicial behavior. She argues that judicial nominees must be evaluated based on their immediate qualifications, their integrity, and their background rather than a political litmus test. It is a classic institutionalist defense.

It also sounds completely out of touch to anyone who watched the confirmation hearings. Critics point out that Collins went out of her way to act as Kavanaugh's defense attorney during a deeply controversial confirmation process. She bought into the narrative that a decades-old precedent was safe in his hands. Believing that required a massive leap of faith. Or a deliberate choice to ignore reality.

Activists are not letting her forget it. The Maine Democratic Party and reproductive rights groups are already spending heavily to keep this issue at the front of voters' minds. They point to her legislative record following the Dobbs ruling. Reports show she skipped multiple Senate committee hearings focused on abortion and reproductive health care. For a senator who claims to champion these rights, that is a glaring absence. It makes her expressions of disappointment look like empty political posturing.

Why Maine Voters Are Not Buying the Disappointment Act

Maine has a long history of independent-minded politicians. Collins follows in the footsteps of legends like Margaret Chase Smith. But Maine is also a state that fiercely protects reproductive freedom. Following the fall of Roe, the state actually expanded its abortion access laws. Collins often uses this fact to minimize the damage of her vote, noting that the Supreme Court's decision did not hurt Mainers directly because state law filled the gap.

That argument misses the bigger picture. Voters do not just care about what happens within their own state borders. They care about national policy. They care about the judges shaping the laws of the country for the next forty years. By framing the issue as a localized problem, Collins underestimates the anger of her constituents.

Her defense relies on a theory of judicial independence that feels increasingly obsolete. She says senators should not try to predict how a justice will rule. But conservative legal networks spent decades grooming nominees specifically to overturn Roe. Everyone knew the goal. To pretend Kavanaugh was a blank slate who suddenly changed his mind on the bench is naive.

The 2026 Senate Race and the Platner Factor

This brings us to the brutal political math of 2026. Collins is a six-term incumbent, but she is facing one of the toughest challenges of her career. The Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, is centering his entire campaign on her judicial votes. When Collins repeated her lack of regret to the press, Platner shot back instantly on social media with a blunt message: "You should."

Platner has his own hurdles to clear. His primary campaign was plagued by controversies and heavy internal party scrutiny. Collins' camp is counting on those vulnerabilities to turn off moderate voters. Recent polling shows the two candidates running neck and neck. In a race this tight, base mobilization is everything. Nothing mobilizes the Democratic base in Maine quite like the defense of reproductive freedom.

Democrats are expanding the target beyond Kavanaugh. They are highlighting her votes to confirm dozens of other conservative judges with clear anti-abortion records. The message is simple. You cannot call yourself pro-choice while consistently building the judicial machinery that destroys choice.

Judging a Jurist by Their Qualifications

Collins maintains that her process is fair. She notes that she also voted for liberal Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats. In her view, consistency is the highest virtue of a senator. She believes that voting down a qualified nominee simply because you disagree with their potential future rulings would destroy the judicial selection process entirely.

That logic leaves her trapped in a political no-man's-land. Right-wing radio hosts and MAGA activists are praising her for saving the Kavanaugh nomination single-handedly. They see her as an ally who delivered when it counted. Meanwhile, moderates and progressives see her as the person who enabled a radical shift to the right. You cannot please both sides when the issue is this polarizing.

If you are a Maine voter trying to make sense of this race, look past the campaign ads. Look at the actual mechanics of power. A senator's legacy is defined by the judges they confirm. Lifetime appointments outlast legislative compromises. Collins can introduce bipartisan bills to codify reproductive rights all she wants, but those bills are dead on arrival in a divided Congress. The Supreme Court majority she helped build is very real, very active, and completely unbothered by her disappointment.

Pay attention to how the campaigns spend their money over the next few weeks. Watch the debate stages. If Platner successfully keeps the focus on the court, Collins will struggle to find a safe harbor. If she manages to shift the conversation to Platner's personal controversies or her own ability to bring federal funding home to Maine, she might just survive another cycle. The choice for voters is whether to judge Collins on her intent or on the consequences of her actions.

EJ

Evelyn Jackson

Evelyn Jackson is a prolific writer and researcher with expertise in digital media, emerging technologies, and social trends shaping the modern world.