Byelections are usually boring affairs where voters punish the sitting government just because they can. It's a time-tested tradition in Australian politics. You get a free hit at the people in power without changing who actually runs the treasury benches. But the Stafford byelection in Brisbane’s north is flipping that historical script on its head, and it’s about to create a massive headache for Queensland Labor leader Steven Miles.
Voters are heading to the ballot boxes after the tragic death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan. Sullivan had a complicated history. He held the seat for Labor until he was booted from the party room in 2025. He sat on the crossbenches until his passing in April. Now, this traditionally red-leaning, working-class stronghold is staring down a historic shift. For a different perspective, check out: this related article.
If Labor loses this seat, it’s not just a bad day at the office. It’s a political earthquake.
History tells us that opposition parties don’t lose byelections to sitting governments. In fact, it hasn't happened in a state vote anywhere in Australia for half a century. Yet, the numbers out of Stafford suggest David Crisafulli’s LNP government is on the verge of pulling off the impossible. Fiona Hammond, the LNP candidate who narrowly missed out in 2024, is back and looks set to grab the seat with a projected 51 to 52 percent of the two-party preferred vote. Related analysis on this trend has been provided by BBC News.
The Math that Destroys Labor’s Spin
Steven Miles is already trying to play down the stakes. He told reporters that the result won’t change the government or his position as leader. Don't believe it. Politics is a brutal numbers game, and the math in Stafford looks terrible for him.
Labor currently holds the seat on a paper-thin 5.3 percent margin. Luke Richmond, the assistant state secretary for Labor, is the guy tasked with saving the furniture. But even if Richmond manages to scrape through by the skin of his teeth, a reduced margin is a massive loss in disguise.
Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams didn't mince words about the situation. He pointed out that Labor should comfortably walk away with 59 or 60 percent of the vote in a seat like this under normal opposition circumstances. If the LNP shrinks that 55.3 percent 2PP from 2024 down to 53, Labor fails. If they lose the seat entirely? It's terminal for the leadership.
Losing a regional seat is bad enough. Losing an inner-suburban Brisbane seat is an outright catastrophe for an opposition leader trying to prove they can win back the state.
Why the Green Factor is Causing Panic
You can’t talk about Brisbane politics without talking about the minor parties. That’s where things get tricky for Luke Richmond. In the 2024 election, Greens candidate Jess Lane secured a massive 18.1 percent of the primary vote. Back then, those preferences flowed heavily to Labor—over 83 percent of them, actually.
This time around, the Greens changed their tactics. Their how-to-vote cards aren't recommending preferences to either major party. It’s a massive blow to Labor’s survival strategy. Without a disciplined flow of progressive preferences, the Labor primary vote needs to do some incredibly heavy lifting.
Then you have One Nation. They botched their strategy by not running a candidate this time around. Back in 2024, their 3.2 percent vote split heavily toward the LNP. While One Nation usually struggles to get traction in suburban Brisbane, their absence means those right-leaning protest votes are likely heading straight to Hammond on the first preference line.
The Shadows in the Labor Party Room
If the Stafford counts confirm an LNP victory, the knives will come out instantly. Miles took over the top job after Annastacia Palaszczuk exited, but his short stint as Premier ended in defeat, and his current run as opposition leader isn't inspiring confidence.
The party room is already looking at alternatives. The name on everyone’s lips is Shannon Fentiman. The shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women is widely viewed as the leader-in-waiting. She has the performance credentials and the factional backing to mount a clean challenge if the Stafford result provides the trigger.
A loss today means Miles loses his mandate to lead the party into the next state election. You can't argue you're on the path back to government when you’re actively surrendering territory you've held almost continuously since 1989.
What to Watch as the Counters Get to Work
Don't wait for the final media declarations to know which way the wind is blowing. Watch the early booth returns from the heavy booths around Kedron and Stafford Heights.
First, look at the Labor primary vote. If Richmond's primary numbers drop below 35 percent, the game is essentially over. The lack of formal Greens preferences will make a low primary vote impossible to rescue.
Second, check the informal vote percentage. With a crowded field of minor candidates, including the Libertarians and the Legalise Cannabis party, any confusion in full preferential numbering will hurt Labor more than the LNP.
If Hammond secures a primary vote north of 42 percent, she will cruise into parliament, making history and ending Steven Miles’ career in the process. Grab your coffee and watch the tally room. The Queensland Labor leadership is on the line.
