The explosions that ripped through central Damascus on Tuesday morning didn't just rattle the windows of the hotel where French President Emmanuel Macron was staying. They shattered the carefully crafted illusion that Syria's new regime has a firm grip on national security. Over eighteen people were wounded right in the heart of the capital while Macron was meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa. It was a stark reminder of a brutal truth. The former jihadist commander turned suit-wearing statesman is finding that conquering a country is much easier than governing it.
People want to know if this new government can actually keep the peace or if Syria is just sliding into a different flavor of chaos. Western leaders are rushing to Damascus to talk about reconstruction and diplomatic ties, hoping to find a stable partner. But looking closely at the ground reality reveals that the regional optimism surrounding the post-Assad government ignores major structural fault lines. Al Sharaa's capacity to establish lasting security remains deeply compromised by internal rebellions, unresolved sectarian bloodfeuds, and a fragmented military apparatus that relies on unvetted militias.
The Mirage of Centralized Control
Step outside the heavy security cordons of Damascus and the state's authority thins out fast. The government directly controls roughly 50% to 60% of the territory. This area mostly covers the urban corridor running from Damascus through Homs, Hama, and Aleppo. In these cities, tax collection, basic medical services, and schools are running again. It looks like a functioning state on paper.
The rest of the country tells a completely different story. The predominantly Druze province of Sweida remains entirely outside state control. Just last summer, bloody clashes and a subsequent military offensive left some 1,700 people dead in the region. The security situation there is so unstable that the government had to postpone appointing lawmakers for the province in the newly formed transitional parliament. You cannot claim to bring regional stability when an entire province in your southern heartland is actively resisting your rule and suffering under a severe humanitarian siege.
Then there is the persistent menace of ISIS. Instead of fading away after the collapse of the old regime, the extremist group is expanding its operations. Recent data highlights a sharp rise in ISIS insurgent activity across Hama, Homs, and Idlib. They are exploiting poorly governed rural zones, rebuilding smuggling routes into Lebanon, and carrying out targeted assassinations. Just days before the blasts near Macron's hotel, a bomb at a café near the Damascus Justice Palace killed ten people. Al Sharaa has tried to use Syria's formal entry into the international anti-ISIS coalition to build domestic legitimacy. He wants the world to see him as a legitimate partner against global terror. But joining a coalition doesn't automatically give you the tactical capability to defeat a stubborn insurgency on your own doorstep.
The New Syrian Army is a Dangerous Fragmented Mess
A state is only as stable as the military that backs it. Al Sharaa's plan to build a cohesive national army is failing because the foundations are rotten. The current security apparatus relies on a chaotic mix of former rebel factions, local armed cells, and dominant figures from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.
This army does not operate under a transparent, civilian-led chain of command. Turkey funds a significant portion of it, paying fighters' salaries and providing heavy weaponry. This creates a dangerous dual loyalty. Are these soldiers loyal to the state in Damascus or to their financial backers in Ankara?
Worse, there is almost no institutional oversight. Armed groups operating under the state umbrella frequently act on their own whims. Integrating Kurdish forces in the northeast into this framework has proven nearly impossible because nobody trusts the central command. When a national military looks more like a collection of heavily armed corporate franchises than a unified defense force, local commanders end up running their own fiefdoms. That is a recipe for long-term warlordism, not national security.
Sectarian Vengeance and the Trust Deficit
You cannot build a stable nation when large segments of the population live in constant fear of extermination. Al Sharaa has spent months projecting a moderate, pragmatic image to the West. He talks about power-sharing and minority rights. He even appointed fifteen women to the transitional parliament this week to address representation imbalances. But his words do not match the actions of his forces on the ground.
The Alawite minority community along the northwest coast faces a terrifying reality. In March 2025, coordinated attacks by remnants of the old regime triggered a massive government counteroffensive. What followed was a wave of horrific violence. Independent investigations by Amnesty International revealed that government-affiliated militias deliberately targeted and killed Alawite civilians based purely on their religious identity. Over 100 people were slaughtered in the coastal city of Banias alone over a forty-eight-hour period. Reuters later reported that approximately 1,500 Alawites were killed across 40 distinct sites during that campaign.
Domestic mistrust runs incredibly deep because of these massacres. Minorities view these events as a deliberate campaign of vengeance and account-settling by the Sunni-dominated government. Al Sharaa promised to hold perpetrators accountable with all fairness. Yet, the findings of the official fact-finding committee remain hidden from the public. If the government cannot or will not restrain its own forces from committing war crimes against its own citizens, true national reconciliation is dead on arrival.
The Geopolitical Tightrope with Israel and the West
Regionally, Al Sharaa is playing a high-stakes diplomatic game. He managed to secure sweeping sanctions relief from the United States after a meeting with Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia. The White House wanted to give the new administration a chance to stabilize the region. To keep the Americans and Israelis happy, Al Sharaa made some significant geopolitical moves. He kicked out Hamas factions, expelled the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and arrested senior figures belonging to Palestinian Islamic Jihad. He even allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency full access to verify that Syria isn't pursuing nuclear weapons.
But Israel remains deeply skeptical. Intelligence officials in Jerusalem don't look at his current pragmatism as a permanent change of heart. They see a former al-Qaeda commander who is temporarily playing nice to consolidate power. Israel's main fear is that Al Sharaa will ultimately fail to maintain control over the country, creating a massive power vacuum. If the Syrian state collapses into decentralized chaos, it opens the door for hostile militias and rogue actors to set up shop right on the border of the Golan Heights. This skepticism means Israel will keep preserving its operational freedom to launch cross-border strikes whenever it senses a threat, keeping Syria's borders volatile.
What Needs to Happen Now
If the Syrian government wants to move past empty public relations and actually secure the country, it has to pivot immediately. First, the administration must publish the full, uncensored findings of the investigations into the coastal massacres of Alawite civilians. Credible trials for the militia commanders responsible for those killings are non-negotiable. True security cannot exist without accountability.
Second, the state must end its reliance on foreign-funded parallel militias. The Ministry of Defense needs to transition away from the current mercenary-style payment system and bring all forces under a transparent, state-funded budget with strict civilian oversight. Finally, Damascus must stop trying to force a military solution in Sweida. The government needs to offer genuine regional autonomy and economic concessions to the Druze and Kurdish regions rather than trying to rule through fear.
The explosions in Damascus prove that time is running out. If Al Sharaa continues to prioritize international photo ops over fixing his fractured security state, the new Syria will end up looking exactly like the old one. Broken, bloody, and perpetually on the brink of collapse.
